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- 🤝 Advised the Mars Fellows project.
- 🤝 Advised another project (stealth mode).
- 🤝 Reached out to other projects, proposing collaboration.
What happens with the crypto market if another major war starts? This question is becoming more important as the tensions continue to escalate.
Right now, there are two primary conflicts:
- The Russo-Ukrainian war (active)
- The US-Chinese confrontation in Taiwan (passive)
Recently, Lithuania has restricted the transit between Russian mainland & Kaliningrad. Russia threatened military action. However, Lithuania is a part of NATO, which means it’s protected by the US & allies. If all countries follow through on their threats, there will be another war in Europe. How will the markets react?
Predictions:
- National currencies will become more volatile.
- National currencies supply will increase (countries will print money to fund the war).
- The volume of investments in startups will decrease.
Conclusions:
- Higher volatility + increased supply of national currencies => higher prices of crypto majors.
- Higher uncertainty + lower investment volume => lower prices of crypto minors.
However, the markets may not react immediately. Currently, most retail traders aren’t thinking about the potential escalation. They’ve been living in peace for most of their lives, so they discount this probability. In short: they are in disbelief.
Therefore, we need to wait until the beginning of a “belief update”, then trade accordingly.
Personally, if another major war starts, I’ll wait 3–4 days to allow the formation of the new narrative, then start building positions.
- 🤝 Advise current projects.
- 🤝 Increase our network & strengthen existing connections.
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