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Raoul Pal’s Take on the World

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It was already going to be a significant Jobs Friday before the West awoke to news of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, perhaps his country’s most significant postwar leader, certainly its most consequential in the 21st century. U.S. payrolls did grow by 372,000 during June, beating the consensus forecast and pushing pause on talk of an imminent recession. Yields surged and stocks sagged this morning, as investors now anticipate a 75 basis point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets July 26-27. Like other risk assets, Bitcoin is holding its ground in recent trading, tracking toward its best weekly since March. Raoul Pal is here with Maggie to break it all down and put it back together again. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange:

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Raoul Pal’s Take on the World

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  1. 9:00 I think what Julian Timmer was referring to was more related to the equity premium component of the total discount rate (risk free rate + equity premium). At current sp500 price of 3800 and forward earning of 200, barely gives you a 2% equity premium (assume 3% 10 year treasury yield). Which is very low historically.

  2. "Many people think that dollar dies from weakness, but dollar dies from strength… "

  3. Haven't tuned in a while, any update on the Dec 21' 35-40k eth price targets?

  4. hes being way too optimistic. THere is no way were bottomed out here . We got a long ways to go man. you guys really think the spy and qqq are just gonna hold at this price when a recession is officially annoujnced and it lasts 1-2 more years? We are going way lower. 40-50%

  5. Friendly question: Has Raoul ever explained that since he been claiming being ALL IN on crypto, how he has been talking recently about other trades he's making (ex. ARK). If one is all in how can one be making other investments?

  6. This interview is superb. I've studied economics and worked in finance all my life and can't find anyone that thinks so logically and intuitively about economics and investing – and Raoul makes it available free on YT! Absolutely amazing, thank you.

  7. Of all the brilliant insight, analysis and prognosis RP has ever delivered, the topper is "Spain has the best food in Europe…"

  8. This guy did so many young investors wrong they’re down over 75% if not more.

  9. The real question should be after Raoul Pal went all in on crypto, what's his net worth between then and now ? and why should we be listening ?.

  10. Thank you for posting another thoughtful interview. There is so much disruption going on globally. There will be pain and growth in every industry. I have faith that anyone that has been paying attention everywhere can prepare for a terrific future. 🤖🧡

  11. The second anyone mentions some t/a voodoo like "head and shoulders" or "neckline" I shut it off….

  12. So Raoul, if it's a fact that we cannot count the amount of dollars in the world how do we have a shortage of dollars? Trillions were created and dispersed in the last 2 years…

  13. Is this the growth scare and market puke that Raoul discussed MONTHS ago? Don't know what people are moaning about. He has also discussed that crypto to would be hit. He's often discussed its volatility. Even suggesting massive drawdown were not out of the question. He definitely has skin in the game there.

    I remember him also suggesting certain market plays AFTER the puke fest. Such as: KRBN, SMH, FB & ARKK.

    He thinks we are near the bottom and has been nibbling high growth stocks.
    Many high growth names have bounced off their lows and stayed. But did he admit you need to be prepared for a possible further 20-30% down?? ( did I hear that right??). That's quite a gush.

    Daddy won't be upset if you're mad at him.

  14. Generally agree. But there are a couple of things that might make the future much more negative. The first is the compounding effect of inflation. The real problem isn't really the double digit inflation we now have. It's the next increase. Even if it drops to 5%. That's 5% on top of the past huge jump. Though it looks Ok on paper. Consumer never catches up. The other thing is the fragile state of the jobs market. Much of the jobs are leisure/hospitality, warehouse, gig stuff which even includes coding. These are highly vulnerable to a significant recession. Cut the legs out from these and you probably have a real economic problem. That's why I believe a big chance the fed will actually cut rates by year end with a government stimulus program likely as well. That would make Raoul's thoughts come through but then the next phase is a question.

  15. LOL everyone of Raoul charts seem like he has a narrative that he wants confirmation of so he plays with Axis till he get correlations

  16. Agree with you on Italian food. Now, Spanish food is amazing, but the best food in Europe is the Portuguese one.

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